Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
January 9, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at
09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3073 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 99/90/70
PCAF red

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 184
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 025/040-017/015-012/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/45/35
Minor Storm 30/10/05
Major-severe storm 50/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 15/30/35
Major-severe storm 85/50/45

SpaceRef staff editor.