Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 09/0904Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 070
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15