Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 08/2113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0245Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 078
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10