- Status Report
- Feb 8, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0326Z from Region 2635 (N13E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 09/1926Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13674 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 073
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05