Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0601Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 09/1239Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/0900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 117
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008/008-008/010-012/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/35