Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0607Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 565 km/s at 08/2321Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 530 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 146
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
