Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 08/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1280 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 077
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 077/080/080
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009/010-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30