Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 09/1703Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (10 Dec, 12 Dec) and quiet levels on day two (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 072
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  009/008-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/25