Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1024Z from Region 2230 (S14E22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 734 km/s at 09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5719 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 20/25/30
Class X 01/01/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 140
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 145/155/165
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
