Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1747Z from Region 1630 (N18E02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec) with a
chance for C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
09/0910Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0726Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1829Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec)
with a chance for unsettled levels during 10 – 11 Dec.

III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 104
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 007/007-006/007-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05