Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/0042Z from Region 2574 (N05E49). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 673 km/s at 09/0940Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4147 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 092
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/012-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/25