Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/0752Z from Region 2396 (S17W24). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 595 km/s at 09/0912Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2253 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 115
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 018/022-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/35/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/15