Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0901Z from Region 2135 (N12E22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at
08/2119Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0032Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 113
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10