Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/2028Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug,
11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
487 km/s at 09/1927Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/1042Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1107Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4410 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 104
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/022-019/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/60/25