Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/1124Z from Region 2978 (S17W95). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 09/0046Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 107
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 105/102/100
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 010/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20