Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 09/1216Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4297 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 079
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 079/078/078
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  009/010-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25