Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (10 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 08/2345Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/1726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0934Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3029 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 074
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  010/012-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20