Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/1613Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 09/1553Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1612Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 106
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10