Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1853Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at
09/0447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1638Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1645Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet levels on
day two (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 131
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 130/130/135
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 007/007-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/05/40