Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0859Z from Region 1718 (N21W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at
09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1823Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 353 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 147
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 006/007-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10