Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 08/0043Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0437Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14152 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 095
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/092
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 009/008-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20