Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 Sep) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 08/1634Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0222Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0246Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1040 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 096
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 008/010-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/20