Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 8, 2015
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at minor storm to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 844 km/s at 08/0825Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21590 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 080
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 044/105
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 038/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 020/027-011/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/35/35

SpaceRef staff editor.