Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1651Z from Region 2182 (S16W42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 08/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0900Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 310 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) with a
chance for isolated active periods early on 09 Oct due to an enhanced
magnetic field and possible night sector sub-storming. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 126
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25