Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Oct,
10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 480 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 08/2052Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 08/2046Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 112
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 008/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 016/008-012/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 65/40/05