Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0751Z from Region 2895 (N26E50). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 07/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3319 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 088
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 090/090/092
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10