Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 317 km/s at 08/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2098 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 077
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 010/012-011/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10