Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 8, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/2321Z from Region 2449 (S12E57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at 08/1645Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/1026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4276 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 108
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 029/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 019/025-014/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/30/30

SpaceRef staff editor.