Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
08/0426Z from Region 1890 (S11W02). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10
Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
08/2024Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1918Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2137Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 20/20/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 146
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 150/155/150
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 006/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/30