Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
May 8, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 743 km/s at 08/2048Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26784 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 May) and quiet levels on day three (11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 070
Predicted   09 May-11 May 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        08 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/15

SpaceRef staff editor.