Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 08/0409Z from Region 2339 (N13E35). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 422 km/s at 07/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0742Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).
III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 150
Predicted 09 May-11 May 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 08 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
