Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
08/1007Z from Region 2056 (N04E44). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May,
11 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
378 km/s at 07/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0732Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 08/0729Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 May, 11
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (10 May).

III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 148
Predicted 09 May-11 May 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 08 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 008/008-011/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/45/25