Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0022Z from Region 1738 (N15W08). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May,
11 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 07/2134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0421Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 674 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11
May).

III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 127
Predicted 09 May-11 May 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 08 May 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10