Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/0313Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 08/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4769 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 115
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 116/116/114
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 005/005-009/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/40/40