Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 08/0348Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 070
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 006/005-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/30/30