Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 07/2352Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1507Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/2341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28636 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 071
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10