Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1306Z from Region 2511 (N02W36). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 07/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3263 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 096
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20