Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 07/2222Z from Region 2297 (S17E66). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 614 km/s at 08/0631Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/1158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0916Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Mar, 10 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 124
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 015/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
