Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar,
10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
08/1141Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0752Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1612 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 115
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 118/120/120
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10