Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/1723Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 08/0055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (11 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 080
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 080/078/075
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 007/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20