Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 08/2059Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 08/1522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 08/1542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 068
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 015/020-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/20
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/30/25