Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 06/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6304 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 069
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10