Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 712 km/s at 08/1128Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 08/0505Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 08/0505Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (11 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 134
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun