Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/1002Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 641 km/s at 08/1753Z. Total IMF reached 29 nT at 08/0654Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/0426Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 149
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 155/160/165
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 026/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 012/015-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/05/05
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 50/05/05