Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
07/2249Z from Region 1762 (S28W87). There is currently 1 numbered
sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 08/0759Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2154Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/0136Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (11
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 103
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 026/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 014/018-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/10
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 60/30/10