Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 07/2301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 067
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10