Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 08/1210Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 08/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 348 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 072
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/20