Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 07/2124Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1619Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 087
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  018/025-015/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/40