Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/0056Z from Region 2564 (N10E79). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 08/0916Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 908 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (09 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 087
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 087/087/087
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 015/020-008/008-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/35
Minor Storm 15/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/20/45