Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/2310Z from Region 2381 (N14E17). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 08/0141Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 954 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (10 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           08 Jul 129

Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 125/125/125

90 Day Mean        08 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  006/005-009/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/30/35

Minor Storm           05/15/25

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/10

Minor Storm           20/30/30

Major-severe storm    20/40/55